Honest Confluence (JP) — MT4 indicator

A free MT4 indicator that exposes the redundancy in apparent indicator confluence. Displays the effective independent count N_eff = K² / Σᵢⱼ ρᵢⱼ² and the operational D-FUMT₈ states NEITHER (hold), FLOWING (weak), TRUE (independent agreement).

Honest scope: This indicator shows STATISTICS, not signals. No order routing, no investment advice, no broker connection. Past back-tested binary-option win rates are displayed with Wilson 95 % confidence intervals — for diagnostic purposes only, not as predictions.

Downloads (v0.30, MIT License)

📥 HonestConfluence_JP.mq4 (source, ~28 KB) — drop into MQL4/Indicators/
📄 README.md — overview & what it displays
📘 USER_GUIDE.md — full parameter reference (10 built-in + 5 iCustom slots)
⚖ LICENSE — MIT License

Mirror (canonical source): github.com/fc0web/honest-confluence-mt4 ↗

One line

Displays the effective independent count N_eff = K² / Σᵢⱼ ρᵢⱼ². Fully independent indicators → N_eff = K (as it appears). Fully redundant → N_eff = 1 (the apparent agreement is one opinion echoed K−1 times).

What it shows

═══ Honest Confluence v0.30 (MIT) ═══
◆ D-FUMT8 state: NEITHER (hold)
→ Majority not trusted / "skip" is a first-class state

Indicators in use: 10 (Lookback 200 bars)
Apparent agreement: 8 / 10   [ buy 8 / sell 2 / neutral 0 ]
Mean |correlation|: 0.71
★ N_eff = 2.49   (info ratio 25 % = N_eff/K)
→ High redundancy (agreement ≈ 1 opinion × K−1 echoes)

★ Statistical fact, NOT a win/loss prediction.
★ NEITHER means "hold judgment", NOT a trade signal.

─── BO past back-test (expiry 5 bars / N=487) ───
Win rate (all): 53.4 %   Wilson 95 % lower 49.0 %
Win rate (buy): 54.1 %   lower 49.2 %   (N=302)
Win rate (sell): 52.3 %   lower 45.5 %   (N=185)
─ Break-even by payout / point EV / lower EV ─
 payout 78 %: BE 56.2 %   point EV −8.5 / lower −12.4
 payout 85 %: BE 54.1 %   point EV −1.4 / lower −5.4
 payout 90 %: BE 52.6 %   point EV +3.1 / lower −1.0
⚠ Past performance only, not a forecast.
⚠ For payouts that yield BE above your win rate, EV is negative.
⚠ N<100 = wide CI, treat as reference only.

D-FUMT₈ first-class states (v0.30 promotion)

NEITHER (hold) — info ratio < 40 %. Majority is unreliable, "skip" is the operational state.
FLOWING (weak) — 40–70 %. Partial-independence regime, treat as informational tail.
TRUE (independent agreement) — ≥ 70 %. Indicators are structurally diverse enough that agreement carries information.

The remaining five D-FUMT₈ axes (BOTH / INFINITY / ZERO / SELF / FALSE) carry no operational meaning in this domain and are intentionally NOT displayed.

Install (MT4)

Download HonestConfluence_JP.mq4 above.
Place it in your MT4 MQL4/Indicators/ folder (File → Open Data Folder → MQL4 → Indicators).
Restart MT4 or refresh the Navigator (Ctrl+N → right-click → Refresh).
Drag Honest Confluence from Navigator onto a chart.
Toggle indicators 1–10 in the input dialog; optionally point slots 11–15 at custom iCustom indicators (see USER_GUIDE.md).

Research backing

Statistical evidence for the redundancy claim — 200 random walks × the same indicator panels → N_eff distribution → percentile of the observed market series: /random-vs-real (this site) and rei-aios.pages.dev/#/neither-flat-eval ↗.

What this indicator does NOT do

Does NOT generate buy/sell signals or send orders.
Does NOT predict price direction or win/loss outcomes.
Does NOT connect to any broker, IB programme, or affiliate.
Does NOT claim regulatory or financial-advice status (Japan FIEA §28 line-safe).
Does NOT promise that any indicator combination is profitable.